This monthly review of Bitcoin price action is starting to sound eeriely similar month to month. Bitcoin has hit and pushed new all time highs on a monthly basis ever since the new ATH was breached in December of 2020.
In fact, March marked the 6th consecutive monthly green candle that started back in November 2020! Despite this run of performance, I personally think we’re still early in the bull market, and pending an approval for an ETF in the US, or more companies announcing that they will be holding Bitcoin in their Treasury Reserve in upcoming Q1 earnings calls, I’m cautiously optimistic about its performance for the rest of April and May.
Record increase in absolute price
Opening the month at $45,261, Bitcoin rallied an amazing 29.9% to close out March at $58,572, which is an increase of $13,541 in absolute dollar terms, setting another record in the process.
The reason why March felt like it was a disappointment though, was because in February, prices actually reached a high of $58,354, before correcting back to close February at $45,240. So, comparing the February high vs the March close, it seems like we spent the entire month crawling back to an area we’ve breached before.
But bull months are just as important as consolidation months, and we spent the better part of March as well as April consolidating in the $50K area, and turning this key level into strong areas of support.
In fact, as of the writing of this post, we have already spent 3 days above $60K in April, but this is a report for April, so we’ll address this next month.
Are we headed for a supercycle?
Past bitcoin bullruns have been made around the 4 year halving cycle, looking into the supply and demand narrative, with a supply shock driving prices higher post halving, before cooling off and slowly riding back up for the subsequent cycle.
But with the rising tide of institutional demand (and their considerably larger cheques), will we truly still see a bear market? Or will the institutional demand be too insatiable for any bear activity, and we’ll see all dips being bought up aggressively, resulting in less intensive corrections?
I think so. Companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, Twitter, Square and PayPal are not buying bitcoin to hold and trade over 6 months. These are long term hedges and treasury plays.
Paperhands Cramer
In what he described as “phoney money paying for real money“, he detailed selling a portion of his bitcoin stash, bought at around $12,000, in order to pay down his mortgage.
Let’s revisit his decision again in a year’s time, when 1BTC = $388,000.
It’s unfortunate that he still refers to fiat as real money. Bitcoin is the most sound money we’ve ever had. The more I think about it, the truer it rings. Few understand this.